mega epidemiology, disaster, epidemiology, maps, medicine, plague, science

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

This map shows the places in the world where the next deadly virus will probably begin its fatal sweep across the globe. Red areas are plague "hot spots," and green areas are regions where epidemics are least likely to break out. An international team of scientists came up with the map after years of exhaustive research into virus patterns. Researchers discovered that disease disasters have quadrupled over the past 50 years, and they have evidence showing which groups are most likely to spread a virulent disease.

Wild animals are the most likely bearers of the next plague — 60% of epidemics are from "zoonoses," diseases that jump from animals to humans living in close proximity. The more that human populations spread into previously-uninhabited areas, the more likely we are to rub up against some viruses that the local fauna are resistant to, while we are not.

According to the Earth Institute at Columbia University:

In the new study, researchers from four institutions analyzed 335 emerging diseases from 1940 to 2004, then converted the results into maps correlated with human population density, population changes, latitude, rainfall and wildlife biodiversity. They showed that disease emergences have roughly quadrupled over the past 50 years. Some 60% of the diseases traveled from animals to humans (such diseases are called zoonoses) and the majority of those came from wild creatures. With data corrected for lesser surveillance done in poorer countries, "hot spots" jump out in areas spanning sub-Saharan Africa, India and China; smaller spots appear in Europe, and North and South America.
"We are crowding wildlife into ever-smaller areas, and human population is increasing," said coauthor Marc Levy, a global-change expert at the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), an affiliate of Columbia University's Earth Institute. "The meeting of these two things is a recipe for something crossing over." The main sources are mammals. Some pathogens may be picked up by hunting or accidental contact; others, such as Malaysia's Nipah virus, go from wildlife to livestock, then to people. Humans have evolved no resistance to zoonoses, so the diseases can be extraordinarily lethal.

Image via Nature.

Scientists Make First Map of Emerging Disease Hotspots [Earth Institute]

7:40 AM on Thu Feb 21 2008
By Annalee Newitz
6,067 views
39 comments

Comments

tetracycloide at 07:59 AM on 02/21/08
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reavealing, chances of major plague outbreaks are directly proportional to population density and inversly proportional to quality of hygiene. wait, not revealing, the other thing... obvious.
Garrison Dean, King... at 08:01 AM on 02/21/08
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As I live in one of these areas, I would like to know if this includes predictions for an outbreak of Solanum. I would like to be appropirately prepared with supplies and weapons in case of "ghouls".
braak at 08:03 AM on 02/21/08
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@tetracycloide: Hahah. I was just going to say that. They did all this work, analyzing all these different factors, and ended up with a map of population density.

Scientists: "Whoops!"
moncapitaine at 08:04 AM on 02/21/08
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Fuck it, I'm moving to Alaska.
bryantpaul at 08:05 AM on 02/21/08
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Judging from that map, Greenlanders need to fear being swallowed by the sea.
ManchuCandidate at 08:10 AM on 02/21/08
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Thanks to speedy travel, no one is really immune from it as SARS showed in 2003/4. Especially if your health care leaders are dipshits (see the gubbiment of Ontario's response to it.)
Publican at 08:14 AM on 02/21/08
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I get it, most likely where there are people.
braak at 08:27 AM on 02/21/08
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@bryantpaul: Greenlanders need to fear what Greenlanders have always feared: being in Greenland.
Frozen-Tex at 08:32 AM on 02/21/08
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Nice to see myself safely in the green.
NaleAne at 08:32 AM on 02/21/08
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@tetracycloide: @braak: @Publican: LOL. Exhaustive research ehh? I wonder how much money they wasted on this uninformative "research" that could have actually been used to discover treatments or vaccines for emergent diseases.
Annalee Newitz at 08:40 AM on 02/21/08
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If you read the study, the thing that's hilariously bizarre is the way they admit there isn't very good "surveillance" (by that I think they mean epidemiological data) in many regions across Africa. So they just make shit up to fill in the gaps (and by "make shit up" I mean run statistical simulations). Surprise -- the areas with less data are "hot spots." Red flag anyone?
Annalee Newitz at 08:42 AM on 02/21/08
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I will also note that Saskatchewan seems very safe. So if you're thinking of relocating, I recommend Saskatoon. Great co-ops, nice cafes, good university, friendly prairie culture.
Frozen-Tex at 08:47 AM on 02/21/08
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@Annalee Newitz: You know Sasky? My fiance was born there, my Mom was born in Moosejaw, and my little sister was born in Nipiwan!
tetracycloide at 08:47 AM on 02/21/08
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@Annalee Newitz: not really. if there is one thing that gathering infant mortality rate data has taught us it is that if medical data is not being collected in an area the quality of medical care being provided there is more than likely lower than would be estimated.
Gann at 09:06 AM on 02/21/08
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This is quite possibly the most depressing map I have ever seen.
NefariousNewt at 09:07 AM on 02/21/08
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Seems like a large protion of Germany is a hot spot -- does somebody know something I don't or do I need to clean my glasses?
Ourobolus at 09:07 AM on 02/21/08
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I'm curious as to why 90% of Africa isn't red.
Mister Adequate at 09:16 AM on 02/21/08
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@Garrison Dean: Why aren't you already prepared?
braak at 09:31 AM on 02/21/08
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@Ourobolus: Lower population densities make wide-spread epidemics less likely. You'll notice, of course, that the largest section of Africa with no likely epidemic risk is shared, geographically, by the Sahara Desert.
Plague at 09:37 AM on 02/21/08
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Hmm. Strange.
I don't have travel plans to ANY of these places...
Gomi at 09:37 AM on 02/21/08
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It's not exactly a population density / hygiene map, though. Look at Europe and the northeastern US. I'd imagine that the population of northern Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and upstate New York is roughly comparable to the border areas of Germany and France (a few major cities, many smaller cities, expanses of rural farmland), with comparable medical care and public hygiene. Yet, the area in Europe is a hotspot, while the US area is largely light green.

India and China are definitely in the population/hygiene camp, but some other hotspots must be for other reasons.
Ourobolus at 09:41 AM on 02/21/08
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@braak: Well yeah. I suppose what I meant to say was "I'm curious as to why 90% of the populated areas of Africa aren't red?"
Citizen Kang at 09:47 AM on 02/21/08
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Whoo-hoo!!! No zombie infestation for me! I'll see the rest of my fellow Californians on the other side of the apocalypse. As for the rest of you...you might want to go out and buy "The Zombie Survival Guide" if you haven't already.
Garrison Dean, King... at 09:50 AM on 02/21/08
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@Huxleyhobbes: Good point. This weekend I'll start staking out short term bunkers for the initial outbreak and isolated destinations for the long term.
shan6 at 09:56 AM on 02/21/08
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Hm, I thought God would hate New England quite a bit more...
Gomi at 09:58 AM on 02/21/08
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@shan6: God hate New England?! We built that City on the Hill, thank ye very much. So what if it turned into genocide, religious intolerance and racism.

(Spoken by a proud Bostonian currently living in a more green area.)
superbryant88 at 10:00 AM on 02/21/08
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That property I own on the moon is looking pretty sweet now.....everyone said that acre of lunar soil was a waste of money....we'll see about that......haha....just gotta figure out how to get there....
Klebert L. Hall at 10:02 AM on 02/21/08
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@ManchuCandidate:

On the bright side, SARS, bird flu, west nile, and Lyme disease all showed that most of these new diseases are insanely feeble, and only a threat to the occasional child / elderly person, or other person at unusual risk.

People always paint these things as the 1918 influenza pandemic, but they're usually more of an inconvenience.
-Kle.
braak at 10:14 AM on 02/21/08
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@Klebert: Wellll...Lyme Disease, while not generally fatal is actually a pretty horrible thing to have.
mgcramps at 10:19 AM on 02/21/08
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It sucks being color blind and living in Ohio.
ideaman2020 at 10:41 AM on 02/21/08
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@braak: Actually, in rare cases, Lyme Disease can be fatal.

I would guess that's usually only if left untreated, but I could be wrong.

Definitely not something you'd want, either way, though.
braak at 10:47 AM on 02/21/08
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@ideaman2020: No, that's true. Left untreated it can, eventually, result in death.
str88f at 10:49 AM on 02/21/08
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Oh great... A Holland-shaped red blot. Flood the place already!
bryantpaul at 10:53 AM on 02/21/08
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Urban centers might be hot-spots for infectious disease, but they're also the places where one would be most likely to find quick and effective medical intervention. It's sort of a catch-22.

Personally, I'm going to spend more time in my Purel bathysphere.
pkrieger at 11:34 AM on 02/21/08
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Speaking as someone with knowledge of bio-terrorism risk-management and bio-preparedness, these kinds of studies are integral to planning for outbreaks, and not a waste of resources. Preventing a disease may be more important that curing a disease.
However, if the same people who conducted the study also wrote the press release, I am concerned. Why is it that the entirety Central Europe being bright red considered a "small spot" while only a few tiny spots in Africa are considered a "hot spot"? They seem to have two contradictory explanations for their results: "Development causes disease" and "under-development causes disease" (by calling underdeveloped areas like Africa, China, and India "hotspots")
P3X-19 at 12:32 PM on 02/21/08
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@pkrieger:

I believe developement does cause disease, because developement creates cities, and dense population is apparent in cities, and dense population increases the chance of poor sewage handeling (among other things), which cause disease.

But I'm not saying that inventing the lightbulb, or putting up an electric grid, will always bring some 'Plauge of God' down upon you.
Jonn at 07:28 AM on 02/22/08
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@Garrison Dean: Actually, World War Z says that China is precisely where the plague starts.

Remember to stock up on Phalanx. And shotguns.
Klebert L. Hall at 08:00 AM on 02/22/08
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@braak:

Yeah, I know Lyme disease isn't exactly fun (I live withing 50 miles of Lyme, and know several people who've had it), but precautions are easy, and when caught early (also relatively easy) there are effective treatments. You can eventually die of bad dental hygiene, too, and it's effects can be much more excruciating than those of Lyme disease.

I guess what I'm saying is, I wish people weren't such scaredy-cats these days.
-Kle.
CmdrHunt at 02:22 PM on 02/22/08
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@Jonn: ... and melee weapons. Nothing says "lobotomy" like a mace to the cranium.