I know what it won't be. Wall-E is like a license to print money, ever Pixar movie has been a huge success.

It's a tie between Journey to The Center of the Earth, X-Files 2 and Dragonball.

I want Wanted to bomb. That's almost the same thing as believing that it will bomb, right?

Dragonball got pushed back. It now opens April 3, 2009.
[movies.ign.com]

Wanted. Being one of the few whose read the comic, it seems the movie threw out all the charm of it.

@BloggyMcBlogBlog: Oh, thanks for the heads up! I will delete dragonball from the poll.

Journey will probably fail, I wouldn't mind seeing Speedracer and Dragonball fail.

I think Indy (well duh!), Wall-E, Batman, and X-files are pretty much sure-fire hits.

It's a tough call between Journey to the Center of the Earth and Hancock. Will Smith doing a superhero parody is destined to be a squeaker, at best but anything with 3-D in the title already has a lit fuse.

I wish you guys would do "Which summer movie will be the biggest hit?" to balance this post. The Nick Denton-mandated cynicism can be so off-putting.

Speed Racer is my guess, looks cool but I can only take it in 30 sec increment - I will wait for DVD/BD

I don't know if X-File sis a sure thing. Us faithful Moulder and Scully dorks may be salivating but a lot of people out there will just go, "X-Files 2? There was a 1?"

I would say Speed Racer if it wasn't for the fact that it'll be rated for kids which means parents will flock to it so they won't have to watch Veggietales again.

I'll go with the Hulk unfortunately because I think people hated the last one so much that another new one so soon will just confuse them. Non fans get way confused by stuff like that. Like when they don't realize that Flash Gordon and The Flash are two different characters.

Indiana. I don't think a lot of people are interested anymore in the franchise.

I also think Journey or Speedracer are the most likely to bomb.

However, I don't think X-Files is a sure thing. It's been off-the-scene too long, and younger audiences are less-likely to gravitate toward it.

Batman, Wall-E, and Indy own the summer.

@extracrispy: honestly, this has nothing to do with Nick Denton. Maybe we will do the "biggest hit" poll tomorrow, if you think it would be interesting. I'm not sure it's as interesting a topic, because most of these movies will probably be hits. Which one is the biggest hit doesn't seem like such an interesting question to me, I'm afraid. It's like saying Spider-Man 3 *only* made $250 million.

Toss-up between Journey to the Center of the Earth and Speed Racer.

Journey to the Center of the Earth, because it features two gimmicks America has outgrown: 3-D and Brendan Fraser.

Speed Racer, because aside from the nostalgia freaks that briefly turned Thundercats into a best-selling comic book, no one cares about Speed Racer. (Based on the trailer, it could either be the greatest thing ever or a disaster of Batman & Robin-level proportions. Hard to tell.)

3D movies seem to fail except at IMax theaters.

I cannot blame any future failure on 3D. TJ Scott is just not strong enough to pull this one off especially with RICK Schroder as the lead actor. It's always nice to see Peter Fonda working. I just wish he chose his projects with more care. Love them Fonda's. Well maybe not so much Jane. But Henry should be a legend in anybody's book.

Ooh, I voted for Speed Racer, but only because I forgot about Journey to the Center of the Earth.

I said Speed Racer because I think more is expected of it than Journey. While Journey will suck, perhaps harder that Speed Racer, SR will be the bigger flop because someone took it seriously. I think Brandon Fraser proves no one expects much from Journey.

Though he was good in Crash. As was Sandra Bullock who, likewise, really only plays one part despite the file.

Like the man said 3D = Bomb

Anything that has the word 3D in the title has to suck.

@AhnyerKeester: Brendan Fraser is a great actor, when he takes on serious roles like The Quiet American. But the goofy, kid-friendly version of BF is usually pretty awful.

Jolie is a boney assed pompous bitch. NOT an action star.
Just thought I'd throw that out there.

@extracrispy: Thinking about it some more... I'm just not sure whether anyone cares what's the *biggest* hit of the summer. I usually care what are the four or five biggest hits, but which one of those is actually biggest? I couldn't tell you which movie was the biggest hit of 2007, off the top of my head.

@Plague: She is now. A golden opportunity was missed with the Tomb Raider movies. I think she did fine in them. Visually they were well done. The stories sucked and that killed all the charm. Better writing could have made Tomb Raider a bajillion dollar francise.

@Killa_Charlie: Bingo.

I don't like having to choose only one...

Personally I'm going with HellBoy. I didn't know they had the nerve to make a sequel, but this baby should never hit the Cinemas. Ever.

Harrison Ford=money machine
Pixar=money machine
Will Smith=money machine(But so was Ben Affleck before Daredevil)
Wachowski bros=money machine
Batman=money machine
X-Files=no one remembers
Hulk=didn't work last time
Wanted=doesn't even look like sci-fi movie
Iron Man=Big on DVD/BR
I don't care what you say I like 3-D movies.
Hellboy Rocks!!!

@broomstick:
Hey, I just read the dumbest commment of the day!
(gives broomstick a pointy hat. Sticks him in corner)

@Plague: Mr. and Mrs. Smith rocked my socks off.

That being said, it's a fine line between blockbuster and flop - if you miss the buzzmob's mobbuzz by that much you're stuck in the doldrums wondering where everyone went.

So any that don't already have the hype are already at risk: Speed Racer, Wanted, Hancock, Hulk, Hellboy, X-Files - and yeah 3D = Doomed, Dead, Disaster.

Indy, Iron Man, Wall-E, and Batman: Those are the ones regular folks are already talking about at the water cooler. And if those four take off like it seems they will - there simply isn't much room for all the others.

I'd guess Hancock has the best chance of joining that list just because Will Smith has literally made his career by carefully looking at scripts and ideas to specifically identify summer blockbusters, and, for the most part, he has had a much better eye for it than any studio exec or critic.

@braak:
wanting this to bomb is like expecting the internet to provide porn.
it is natural and will occur shortly.

Hulk. Very few people know it's coming, and there's still lurking backlash from the last one.

I'll be seeing Starship Dave, since Paul Chaplin wrote it, and I'm a sucker for MST3K refugees.

@Charlie Jane Anders: I hear ya. My comment was more out of fear at seeing io9, a blog I enjoy very much, take the "everything sucks" approach that seems so prevalent at Gawker sites. I had just finished reading "Two Acts You Should be Prepared to Hate" over at Idolator, a music blog that doesn't seem to actually like music all that much. I'd hate to see io9 become that cynical.

PS: Spider-Man 3 was the top movie of 2007.

The next poll, which one of these will be good. Because only one will. They may make money, but Will Ferrell and Adam Sandler crap makes money too.

@Gyrus: What Gyrus says about X-files. The faithful will be there (that's me) but the rest of the people will be scratching their heads and saying "wasn't that a show on the teevee waaaaay back in the 90's?"

I can't stand Will Smith, and Legend was a steaming pile of turd, as was Robot. If he's parodying superheroes in Hancock then he just might redeem himself, but even the script for the Schwarzenegger version of Legend was better than his last turkey.

Amen to Hellboy 2 being a smash. Can't wait. the same to Indy, Batman, Ironman, and even Wanted, just because I'm happy to see Macavoy getting work since he is a talented actor. Not sure about the others.

Regardless, the whiners need to sit down now. The amount of quality material being made these past few summers is amazing, and I'm counting the blockbusters but also the tiny hits that often fly under the radar. It's like the movie-people listened to the movie geek in all of us and went and sinned no more. That won't stop the whiners though, which is a shame. Granted there are still the cliched pile of turkey doots that get made on a regular basis, but in general the amount of good and fun stuff to watch has been growing for awhile now. Yay for the viewers.

Speed Racer or Hulk

I didn't even know Hulk was coming out this summer, I thought it was fall or next summer. It comes out a month after Iron Man but IM is getting all the hype.

Well the two movies I won't be seeing are Journey to the center of the earth 3d and Xfiles 2. So one of those.

@Hobbyns: Yes, there is a lot of good stuff, and a lot of bad stuff that is higher quality than the bad stuff (cult classics) used to be..

That said, Speed Racer looks like two hours of eye-strain.

But i try to get my eight bucks out of everything, and i don't get off doing the hatevibe tango on everything in sight.

Looks like a good summer.

And oddly, i didnt like "Hulk" in the theater, but saw it on the tube later and was sucked right in..Something about the scale worked on the small screen

I wouldn't underestimate the mass appeal that another X Files movie could generate. The show was a global phenomenon and Mulder and Scully's iconic status is recognizable even to those who've only ever caught the occasional rerun on TNT. I say XF2 opens really strong its opening week and then promptly disappears from the top 5.

While he will face some very stiff competition, the Brendan Fraser 2/3rds rule will win out (2/3rds of all his movie are pure and utter crap....so what out for his next film.. OSCAR BAYBAY! Pure GOLD.)

comments in this thread=proof that smart people don't understand dumb people.

X-Files will only be seen by people who watched the TV show like 10 years ago, if they still care.

Surprise smash hit of 2008: Hellboy 2. Seriously, the first movie was great. AND Guillermo del Toro is still directing, so now everyone will be all like "oh shit, that's the guy that did Pan's Labyrinth, I HAVE to see this now."

@low_brass: I did like that first Hellboy. But what do i know? I haven't bought a comic book since Peter Parker was a virgin.

And i did like Pan's Labyrinth, even if it was a Fantasy.

One dark movie. We need more foreign directors, the Hollywood guys seem to only talk to each other.

If you wanted to leave out the obvious train wrecks, the why is "Journey To The Center of the Earth 3-D" listed? Or, did you miss the trailer?

has anyone heard of a Narnia sequel (Prince Caspian) movie coming out in May?

While waiting to see "I Am Legend" in IMAX, I saw the "Bank Robery" trailer for "The Dark Knight". When it was over, the audience actually gave it a round of aplause! If the rest of the film is as good as the trailer, We may have a blockbuster.

My personal hope is for "Journey to the Center of the Earth". The original film is one of my all time favorite films. Besides, I'm a real Geek for "Inner Earth" stories. Although the "3-D" tag may be a red flag. Anyone remember "Jaws 3-D"?

"Get Smart" as Sci-Fi? Close, but "It missed it by that much". (Sorry, I had to say it.)

I want to see everything other than Wall-E fail miserably.

Journey and Speedracer are probably the safest bets on being stinkers. My vote's on Indy. Shia Labeouf + George Lucas sequels = lame! Stop raping my childhood!!!

I'm sure it'll make millions of dollars 'cause everyone's going to go see it anyway but the Star Wars prequels made millions of dollars too and those were garbage.

I want it to be Indiana Jones because I think the franchise finished nicely and I can't stand Shia Laboef or whatever his name is.

Loved Jolie as Lara Croft. She used to be good at the less-than-fully psychotic roles. But then Brad came along and sucked all the crazy out of her. . .

Speedracer was annoying enough in its first incarnation. Truly only for the fanboys.

I really want Iron Man (even though I don't care for the comic) to do well because of Robert Downey Jr. Same for the Hulk because of Ed Norton. And, of course, I can't wait for Batman because the first one was so good. I also really liked the first Hellboy, but I never read the comic so maybe that's why.

@MrLookback: I agree. Stop messing with my childhood memories too! I remember the Indy where he wasn't CG and moved as fast as Spider-man.

And cut out the Lia Shabeouf crap... putting him in any movie doesn't make it better. For example, he did nothing extra for Charlie's Angels Full Throttle.

I say either Wanted or Hancock, simply because I have never heard of them before. With the exception of Wall-E, the rest have prior name recognition behind them (and with the names Pixar and Disney attached to it, Wall-E will do OK, I think).