
[T]he most important thing to consider is his chance at the win. I doubt he'd have a shot at beating The Wrestler's Mickey Rourke, or Milk's Sean Penn, or Frost/Nixon's Frank Langella in the Best Actor race. But in the supporting category, his strongest likely competitor is Doubt's Philip Seymour Hoffman, coincidentally the man who defeated Ledger for Best Actor the only other time Ledger was nominated, for Brokeback Mountain. While Hoffman's Capote performance was the sure bet back then, this time it could be a true toss-up.

