What's the difference between writing science fiction and strategizing about the future?S

Over at Boing Boing, vN author Madeline Ashby has a great discussion of the difference between creating Strategic Foresight (attempting to predict variables for a strategic outlook) and writing science fiction. It's a really useful, quick primer in how to think about the future. Including not just identifying trends, but figuring out the underlying factors that drive those trends and the shape they could take in the future. And creating a "critical uncertainties matrix," or a list of unpredictable factors that could change your scenario. It's pretty helpful stuff, if you're planning on writing an SF story, or doing a forecast for someone. [Boing Boing]