Actualy, most people lie about stuff because they already feel someone is owed to them, or they think they need to "counter" other lies, by telling one themselves.
Its normal far more complex then "me want X so I lie to get it cheaper"
The other factor to take into account is everyone tends to think everyone else is more stupid them themselves.
@WindowlickinDaywalker: I wasn't, but now that I re-read it, that chunk I pasted sounds pretty stupid when taken out of context. I've discussed what I mean in a couple huge posts around here, mine and tetracycloide's
I must be misunderstanding this because I'm reading it like "if universal healthcare is of more value to you, then you pay more for it, whereas if it isn't you pay less." If so, then UR DOIN IT WRONG!
Oh well, all these economists are going to find out from me is that all military spending should go to boobs.
The economists have finally realized that all people rationalize (as opposed to being rational) and will always look for the free lunch. What a breakthrough!
And THIS is their solution? Spend $1M-$2.5M USD per fMRI machine so people can spend 15min-1hr and $400-$3500 USD per scan to tell them whether or not a voter values something?
"So, for example, a swimmer might benefit a great deal from a public pool. But she wants to pay as little as possible for it, so she lies about how much it will benefit her. This may not affect the public's decision to build the pool, but it could affect how much she pays for it."
Actually, a public pool isn't a "public good," as it is very easy to make only the people who use it pay for it. A public good is something like national defense, in which it's rather difficult to defend an entire continent while excluding Joe's house because he refuses to pay up.
@Franklin Harris: It is a public good if the Government pays for building it and then there's not a company running it to maximize benefit, but only to cover costs (or even covering only a part of them if covering everything would mean people not being able to afford the price and use it)
it doesn't have to lead to a terrifying, dystopia welfare state. i could just as easily lead to a more perfect government decision making process. this isn't to far removed from direct democracy via permanent net connection only so efficient the voting takes place on a subconscious level free from political posturing and deceit.
@tetracycloide: Voting from a subconscious level? That would make for the worst government ever. I still have to see a politician appeal to feelings with a different reason than to exploit them to further an agenda (the most innocent of them being winning the next election.
Godwin's Law keeps me from giving the most compelling examples, but there are plenty of them. We wouldn't probably have any civil rights for racial minorities, or women, if laws were decide by what people subconsciously want. And you Americans don't have equal rights for other minorities,like the homosexuals, because the majoritary feelings are opposed to them.
My point being: Politics should be done with your brains, not your guts. As a white heterosexual male, I'm bombarded with messages telling me I'm a supreme being and should despise everyone that is not the same, and it would be naive to think that does not affect my judgement. But fortunately, I have enough brains not to say "fuck them, if they earn less, it's because they're not as good as me, after all, I'm a supreme being, you just have to see how everyone in any position of power looks like me, because we're better, except for a couple ones, but that's because of a conspiracy".
We've evolved to be like that, callous and narcissistic, but if we've grown past killing everyone who looks from another tribe, and rape everyone who seems fertile, it's because, part of the time, we don't do what we want, but what we think we should
@Dirk Anger: i think you've conflated 'on a subconcious level' to mean 'in the subconcious in a freudian sense' which was not my intent. my intention was to discribe a system where voting preferences are polled from the aggregate of an individuals actions and thoughts instead of their stated preference when asked. i think we would find that many that oppose equal rights for homosexuals or socialized medicine actually act and feel differently than they say they do, that they maintain their position because they don't fully understand the implications of it and that if they did they would come to a different conclusion. the fundamental problem with most issues such as these is a lack of empathy and, if properly constructed, this could put them in someone else's shoes without actually requiring they be capable of seeing themselves in someone else's shoes.
@tetracycloide: "my intention was to discribe a system where voting preferences are polled from the aggregate of an individuals actions and thoughts instead of their stated preference when asked. i think we would find that many that oppose equal rights for homosexuals or socialized medicine actually act and feel differently than they say they do" and that is exactly what I meant, but I don't think that's a bad thing, I think that, while it's virtually impossible to take a prejudice out of somebody's head, if they're, let's say, bullied into acting like they don't have it, via social pressure, their sons won't grow up hearing those all the time (some will) and won't repeat it.
I can't see how having a machine that tells you what somebody really thinks can help you empathize with anyone. It could help if it was applied to politicians and the results would be made publicly available... but it probably would keep everybody from voting
@Dirk Anger: it doesn't help the individual empathize, it adds empathy to their votes when the individual is, for whatever reason, unable to do so themselves. the laws then create the social pressure that forces the individual to come to terms with the reality of their preferences and, at a minimum, stifle their baser instincts to the benifit of the next generation. it's really not all the dissimilar from what happened to in the civil rights movement and the courts.
This assumes that people can accurately know the value of something ahead of time. Most of the time, people make these choices based on assumptions and impressions, not on actual experience.
Like socialized health care--a lot of people say they don't want it, but how much of that is based on some irrational fear of state-run anything (oh noes! Communism!) and how much of it is based on actual understanding or experience with the costs and benefits of socialized health care?
@Anekanta: actually it doesn't. by polling true preferences it can apply them to the conditions as they would actually be and not as the voter thinks they would be.
@tetracycloide: But if the voters preference is based on faulty premises (socialized health care leads to communism, for example) it is still his true preference, isn't it? How are you determining "true preferences"?
@tetracycloide: I apologize, as my example was a bit unclear. What I mean is, even true preferences are based on assumptions about reality. If those assumptions are inaccurate, people's preferences, though they may be honest about them, will not necessarily lead to a good decision.
@Ghost_in_the_Machine: I'm saying that rationality depends a lot on context. You can only act based on what you believe you know--and the way a situation is described / presented to you completely changes the decisions you are likely to make about it.
So, if you have bad information, or bad context, you can have bad (but perhaps honest) preferences and end up making bad decisions--even though the choices you made were perfectly rational / consistent with respect to the context.
@Ghost_in_the_Machine: you poll actions and behaviours and compare them with accurate premises to come to a conclusion effectivly making an end run around imperfect information on the individual's part by eliminating as completely as possible the imperfect information on the system's part.
I asked a group of economics experts questions about the market and the global economy. Each time the fMRI scan showed that they didn't know shit, they received an electric shock.
@twophrasebark: Me too! Funny how IRBs never seem bothered when I submit requests to do research that involves delivering powerful electric shocks to economists!
@Annalee Newitz: hey! i'm an economist and i don't like electric shocks as far as i know. however i've never actually received on in a control setting so it's hard to judge the utility and i supposed we could come up with some really interesting regression models to predict my reactions to future electric shocks. tell you what, i'll let you strap me in and administer one shock for science.
I agree with Krugman. Scientific progress is slowing down considerably.
Looking at Physics, namely the Large Hadron Collider, even if they get some experimental results that point to higher dimensions - it's not like they could use that information to create new technologies that would change our lives. It takes a gigantic collider and I don't know how many joules of energy just to barely detect these "dimensions". It's not like we would be able to engineer some technology that everyone could use from this.
It just feels like we've hit a wall in physics research that not even the large hadron collider can solve.
I'm sorry but the shopping mall example is a terrible argument, that's like saying if you could travel back to the 14th century you would in fact, find civilization running. Yes, you could approach a market and recognize ah yes! this is where people acquire goods, just like i do today! Also, in this article change is described very vaguely. If we're talking about technological change, then i'd have to disagree with Krugman wholeheartedly. The world we live in today is the stuff of science fiction, all you have to do is step back and look at the amazing things making our lives simpler that we take for granted. People have always possessed the same ingenuity, intelligence, and personalities throughout history, but the structure, communication, and availability of knowledge has changed.
@TheGreenRanger: There's been some progress, but it's mostly small, incremental stuff. I can't think of any great advance since the internet. Compare 1989 to 2009.
___
*iPod - Walkman
*Mac/PC - Mac/PC
*25mpg Car - 30mpg Car
*Microwave - (still a) Microwave
*TV - HDTV
*Cell phone - Cell phone
*Airplanes - (mostly the same) Airplanes
*Modern Medicine - 'Modern Medicine'
___
Aside from the internet, I can't imagine much of what today would astound people from 1959. Maybe video games. However, if you took someone from 1909 and brought them to 1959, their mind would be blown. (Lightbulbs, Mass Produced Radios, Cars, Televisions, Modern Airplanes, etc).
@Paul_Is_Drunk: i'd bet money a time traveler from 1959 would find the size, color depth, and clarity of our TVs to be astounding so much so that they might not even recognize it as a TV. even 1989 to 2009 is a huge degree of difference in many areas. pretending that a mac/pc from 1989 is even remotely comperable to one from 2009 is flat out silly, much like ipod vs. walkman, 80's cell phones with today's, and even airplanes. pretty much the only thing on that list that hasn't seen major advancements that would be evident to the end user is microwaves.
@tetracycloide: Like I said... small, incremental progress. Someone from 1909 in 1959 wouldn't even know how to replace a light bulb, driving a car would be beyond scary, and seeing a television set would probably require a change of underwear. I didn't even get a chance to mention refrigeration, or other small stuff like vacuum cleaners... all of which is pretty much the same today, just newer.
___
As for everything else, someone in 1989 would have no problem figuring out how to use a cell phone today. We still have the same number pad and dial button. Computers are more advanced, but still use the point and click interface.
___
Color TV wouldn't be unrecognizable to people from 1959, and I think they'd be a little disappointed that HDTV isn't more advanced than it is.
___
Oh, and airplanes? Pretty much the same hunks of metal, with very small changes: [www.epsrc.ac.uk]
@tetracycloide: I didn't much understand his 1989-2009 point either. Was the point that there isn't as much "completely new" stuff like lightbulbs, air travel, cars, radios? Yeah, the only thing of this magnitude invented recently was the Internet. But the amount that computers, cell phones, televisions and other technologies have improved in the past 20 years is still staggering.
Yes, we "still" have the same idea of old boring personal portable music players. How passe! How can any reasonable human being not be amazed at the difference between an ipod and an old 80s walkman. Sure they're both for the obvious design of portable music, but the difference in technology is still rather staggering.
That's almost like comparing Gutenberg's printing press to the Kindle. Yeah, they both help disseminate books, etc. Boring! Unspectacular!
@Bill-Lee: That's true. I was basing that off of my great grandmother's stories of using candles and the... Sears (?) catalog as toilet paper, because the real stuff was too expensive. I honestly don't know when light bulbs became standard household items.
@Paul_Is_Drunk: Nanomachines? LEDs? Human genome sequencing? Elimination of smallpox? Creation of artificial life from base components? Custom drugs created from computer simulations?
I think people just aren't paying attention to the advances that are happening now, because people only see consumer products as the end result and corporations are stuck in a rut when it comes to taking risks with new kinds of products - manufacturing corporations like to keep things the way they are and make everyone a good consumer of "durable goods". It stifles innovation in consumer goods, but scientific advancements are still occurring off the average person's radar.
@Paul_Is_Drunk: I don't have the sense that the rate of change has slowed, but I do have the sense that different things change at different rates. By that I mean new stuff is changing fast and old stuff is changing less fast.
For example: in the 60's, things we now take as commonplace, such as space ships and space stations, digital libraries, cell phones, video conferencing, personal mobile computers, global networks, voice interfaces for computers, personal lasers, military robots, etc. were science fiction (i.e. Star Trek, etc.).
And while you may be right that people from 1989 would not be astounded by 2009, I doubt that the people from 1909 would be astounded by the technology of 1929. I suspect almost any 20 year period is going to have small incremental progress rather than massive, dramatic, changes.
@Paul_Is_Drunk: the ability for anyone, anywhere to have the answer to almost any question is a pretty fundimental difference in cilivisation.
Plus, mobile phones.
@Paul_Is_Drunk: "Color TV wouldn't be unrecognizable to people from 1959,"
Flatscreen would.
Also, your being rather stupid to say "cell phones havnt advanced much because we still use numbers" >_
09/11/09
Its normal far more complex then "me want X so I lie to get it cheaper"
The other factor to take into account is everyone tends to think everyone else is more stupid them themselves.
09/11/09
09/10/09
09/11/09
09/11/09
And it looks like some enterprising defense attorneys have already tried using the fMRI as a lie detection test in CA:
[www.wired.com]
09/11/09
09/11/09
09/10/09
09/11/09
09/11/09
09/10/09
Oh well, all these economists are going to find out from me is that all military spending should go to boobs.
09/10/09
The economists have finally realized that all people rationalize (as opposed to being rational) and will always look for the free lunch. What a breakthrough!
And THIS is their solution? Spend $1M-$2.5M USD per fMRI machine so people can spend 15min-1hr and $400-$3500 USD per scan to tell them whether or not a voter values something?
Fail.
09/10/09
Actually, a public pool isn't a "public good," as it is very easy to make only the people who use it pay for it. A public good is something like national defense, in which it's rather difficult to defend an entire continent while excluding Joe's house because he refuses to pay up.
09/11/09
09/11/09
09/10/09
09/11/09
Godwin's Law keeps me from giving the most compelling examples, but there are plenty of them. We wouldn't probably have any civil rights for racial minorities, or women, if laws were decide by what people subconsciously want. And you Americans don't have equal rights for other minorities,like the homosexuals, because the majoritary feelings are opposed to them.
My point being: Politics should be done with your brains, not your guts. As a white heterosexual male, I'm bombarded with messages telling me I'm a supreme being and should despise everyone that is not the same, and it would be naive to think that does not affect my judgement. But fortunately, I have enough brains not to say "fuck them, if they earn less, it's because they're not as good as me, after all, I'm a supreme being, you just have to see how everyone in any position of power looks like me, because we're better, except for a couple ones, but that's because of a conspiracy".
We've evolved to be like that, callous and narcissistic, but if we've grown past killing everyone who looks from another tribe, and rape everyone who seems fertile, it's because, part of the time, we don't do what we want, but what we think we should
09/11/09
09/11/09
I can't see how having a machine that tells you what somebody really thinks can help you empathize with anyone. It could help if it was applied to politicians and the results would be made publicly available... but it probably would keep everybody from voting
09/11/09
09/10/09
Like socialized health care--a lot of people say they don't want it, but how much of that is based on some irrational fear of state-run anything (oh noes! Communism!) and how much of it is based on actual understanding or experience with the costs and benefits of socialized health care?
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
(see this guy: [en.wikipedia.org])
So, if you have bad information, or bad context, you can have bad (but perhaps honest) preferences and end up making bad decisions--even though the choices you made were perfectly rational / consistent with respect to the context.
09/11/09
09/10/09
I asked a group of economics experts questions about the market and the global economy. Each time the fMRI scan showed that they didn't know shit, they received an electric shock.
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
09/10/09
[www.dailymail.co.uk]
08/12/09
Google.
08/11/09
08/11/09
Looking at Physics, namely the Large Hadron Collider, even if they get some experimental results that point to higher dimensions - it's not like they could use that information to create new technologies that would change our lives. It takes a gigantic collider and I don't know how many joules of energy just to barely detect these "dimensions". It's not like we would be able to engineer some technology that everyone could use from this.
It just feels like we've hit a wall in physics research that not even the large hadron collider can solve.
08/11/09
08/11/09
08/11/09
___
*iPod - Walkman
*Mac/PC - Mac/PC
*25mpg Car - 30mpg Car
*Microwave - (still a) Microwave
*TV - HDTV
*Cell phone - Cell phone
*Airplanes - (mostly the same) Airplanes
*Modern Medicine - 'Modern Medicine'
___
Aside from the internet, I can't imagine much of what today would astound people from 1959. Maybe video games. However, if you took someone from 1909 and brought them to 1959, their mind would be blown. (Lightbulbs, Mass Produced Radios, Cars, Televisions, Modern Airplanes, etc).
08/11/09
08/11/09
___
As for everything else, someone in 1989 would have no problem figuring out how to use a cell phone today. We still have the same number pad and dial button. Computers are more advanced, but still use the point and click interface.
___
Color TV wouldn't be unrecognizable to people from 1959, and I think they'd be a little disappointed that HDTV isn't more advanced than it is.
___
Oh, and airplanes? Pretty much the same hunks of metal, with very small changes:
[www.epsrc.ac.uk]
08/11/09
Yes, we "still" have the same idea of old boring personal portable music players. How passe! How can any reasonable human being not be amazed at the difference between an ipod and an old 80s walkman. Sure they're both for the obvious design of portable music, but the difference in technology is still rather staggering.
That's almost like comparing Gutenberg's printing press to the Kindle. Yeah, they both help disseminate books, etc. Boring! Unspectacular!
08/11/09
08/11/09
08/11/09
I think people just aren't paying attention to the advances that are happening now, because people only see consumer products as the end result and corporations are stuck in a rut when it comes to taking risks with new kinds of products - manufacturing corporations like to keep things the way they are and make everyone a good consumer of "durable goods". It stifles innovation in consumer goods, but scientific advancements are still occurring off the average person's radar.
08/11/09
For example: in the 60's, things we now take as commonplace, such as space ships and space stations, digital libraries, cell phones, video conferencing, personal mobile computers, global networks, voice interfaces for computers, personal lasers, military robots, etc. were science fiction (i.e. Star Trek, etc.).
And while you may be right that people from 1989 would not be astounded by 2009, I doubt that the people from 1909 would be astounded by the technology of 1929. I suspect almost any 20 year period is going to have small incremental progress rather than massive, dramatic, changes.
08/12/09
Plus, mobile phones.
08/12/09
Flatscreen would.
Also, your being rather stupid to say "cell phones havnt advanced much because we still use numbers" >_