"Kids...someday there will be fewer and fewer American workers and you will be paid tons of money for your work skills. And if you think this Skylab stuff is cool, heck...you'll probably be living on the moon by the year 2000." -
Mrs. Downey's 3rd Grade class, Edison Elementary School, Alameda CA.
Yeah...thanks for the tip lady. And you'll be sitting in the Caycos making 12% returns with the Madoff fund. Bon appetit!
I don't think we are going to see jobs eliminated so much as drastically reduced. There are still people making a living from building furniture using only hand tools, for example. It's a niche market, to be sure, but it still exists, and appreciation of it rises as Ikea and Crate and Barrel drown the world in a ocean of machine made stuff.
The theory I made up is that the marketplace always gets excited by higher tech ways of building things, particularly because the price of common goods tends to come down. (Machines producing more stuff for less money, etc) But there is a return swing on that line, where the market also starts to see the value of older techniques. Think of clothing: for millenia hand made clothes were the only choice, and most people had a very limited number of clothing articles. As mills and sewing machines came into ready availability, more people were able to afford multiple sets of clothes. Now you can go into the darkest jungles of the world, and find locals wearing T-shirts with Michael Jordan on them. But if you want to impress the people around you with the quality of your clothes, you get something hand made, like a Bond-street suit. How something was created becomes part of its value.
Having said all of that, I can't wait until I can my hands on a 3D printer! Those things are going to shake the world of manufacturing right down to its roots, just you wait and see...
"We already see a future in which the humble contact lens becomes a real platform, like the iPhone is today, with lots of developers contributing their ideas and inventions."
Multi-touching one's eyes? Heh... the Three Stooges would be happy to see their eye-poking routine becoming commonplace. :)
As humanity progress's, less and less jobs are about survival and more and more about entertainment and research.
Thats the real "progress" its not less jobs.
Its the switch from uncreative to creative work.
Augmented Reality will indeed make huge volumes of jobs redundant, as well as reducing humanity's environmental impact.
But why wait for a contact lens? Whats so bad about a sleak pair of glass's, or side-based retina projection.
Both infinitely easier to make with current technology, and probably a darn site cheaper.
@Sunshineyness: I can imagine when somebody thought of planting stuff instead of going looking for it... What's going to happen with forragers when we don't need so many? What's going to happen with our hunters?
@twDarkflame: By "a few hours," do you mean "nine hours every day?" O_o Heck, in some European countries the recent trend has been towards a longer work-week, not a short one... I mean, sure, compared to the 25-hour day or whatever they had in the Industrial Revolution times it's a huge improvement, but let's not get carried away.
@ParryLost: They're pushing the 60 hours work week, and, even with the huge majority of Europeans being opposed to it, I think it has been approved.
Its proponents are presenting it with this argument: There are lots of people who already work those hours: doctors, firemen, etc. This is a way to regularize it so that something you do a couple times every week is not presented as "exceptional" (extra hours).
Of course, everybody I know who works those hours is opposed to it, because, well, what the hell, If I have to work 8 hours more after working my regular 8 hours, that is NOT normal and those second 8 hours have to be paid more than the first 8 hours, and this is going to be a covered way to pay them less.
At least in Spain, where unpaid extra hours are more the rule than the exception, most people who work in the private sector, and many that work for the State, gets the feeling that working 10 hours a day and being paid for eight is now a reality that we're taking little steps to change, and this regulation looks like a huge step in the opposite direction, because, with an unemployment rate that's expected to reach 20% in a few months, you can't exactly say "you're exploiting me, I'll go to work for another company" if they ask you to work 60 hours for the same pay than you worked more than 40 before.
So right around the time of the Columbian Exchange, when everybody is trading goods and diseases and the likes, people start making enough cash to pursue what they want to in life. The beginnings of capitalism and world trade. Does this mean that the natural evolution is for a society where one does not take in the ritual of the daily grind ( from minimum wage, vastly overpriced university's, to work) and they instead pursue only what they want and interests them? Did I sit through lectures about how Freud is a real mother fucker for naught? Alright, ignore that last part...
Then there are the technologies that will destroy entire industries.
As the cost and speed of 3-D printing decreases and increases respectively, manufacturing will be hit pretty badly, especially in the little things. I refer of course to miniatures for use in tabletop games, collectible or otherwise.
Personally, I can't wait for the day when Daleks run Wal-mart. I look forward to the day I can shop there without being disturbed by unattended, screaming children running around and tearing the place apart.
@Elle: More like 'Have A Nice Day....Or Else...Madam Your Child Is Fondling The Confections...One May Only Consume Edibles After Purchase....Madam Your Offspring Has Consumed A Confection Without Purchase...Please Compensate For The Edibles....EXTERMINATE, EXTERMINATE, EXTERMINATE!!!'
@Dunnster: Dude, that's not fucking funny. Obviously you've never had a friend who died in a fiery explosion when a bad fitting o-ring on his '58 Indian failed.
@Eldritch: As a bookseller as well... the day one can pop into the search key "elephant and frog" and have it tell them what they were really looking for was "Elephant and Piggy" is the day we will be out of work. Or when someone says "oh... it has a red cover and there's a dog..." and be able to tell them they're looking for "The Curious Incident of the Dog at Midnight." Both true accounts and neither the most obscure I've been asked.
Though considering our search engine that they've spent tons of man hours programming can barely handle the article in the title being off I think we're cool for now.
@Sunshineyness: You never used Aadvark? You dont need machines to replace those sorts of requests.
Theres distributed-human power to do it too.
Just about any vague "what was that book..." or "what was that film.." question I normaly have answered on vark.com within a few minutes.
AI is a sidestory, the real story is the hivemind human inteligent is becomeing.
Technology is going to end work as we know it...Yeah, I'll buy that for a dollar. Robots were supposed to replace human autoworkers sometime in the 1980s, computers were supposed to create a paperless society. Well none of the fabulous predictions ever came true. New United Motors just outside of Oakland is laying off workers because of the weak economy not because of robots. I have as much paper today as I did in the 1980s. Robots may one day be a standard tool in the operating room but surgery is as much an art as it is a science and good surgeons rely on their intuition as much as their scalpels. The hypothesis of the uncanny valley suggests that humans will never accept robot store clerks. They would find them just too creepy. I would rather interact with a real human with real emotions not a high tech puppet with simulated emotions.
@Bill-Lee: Are you at all familiar with the actual Uncanny Valley hypothesis? If you are, I certainly don't need to remind you of the fact that the hypothetical part of the phenomenon--the part where robots are so human-like as to be indistinguishable from human beings--is the part that makes it a valley. As opposed to being "The Uncanny Bottomless Pit."
There are many people who believe that human beings have some kind of magical human-sensing power, but this seems like a fairly implausible position. Human beings are already shit at figuring out what's going on.
And, in fact, the reason that New United Motors has to lay people off in the weak economy is because the UAW managed to sustain high salaries for human workers, despite the fact that robot replacements should have been driving salaries down.
Also, you really do have as much paper as you had before the invention of the computer? Like, you've still got hard copies of all of your correspondence and things? Maybe all those letters that you write, for example?
It's one thing to complain that changes aren't happening fast enough--but suggesting that technology hasn't effected change at all seems a little absurd.
@braak: Yes, when I moved out of my dad's house I discovered that I still had at 90% of all my papers -- going all the way back to elementary school. In college writing courses I ended up with multiple hard copies of every story and play I wrote. I never was much for writing letters but I still had most of the old birthday cards and party invitations. I recently recycled it all but my point was that computers never replaced paper just like robots will never replace human workers - they may augment them but never replace them. NUMI may have been a bad example but I have yet to see a factory of any sort that has ever replaced its workers with robots. And yes I am familiar with the other end of the uncanny valley but I doubt we will have robots that are indistinguishable from humans. I wasn't complaining that technology doesn't change fast enough or that it hasn't changed the way we work just that it has never changed the way we work in the dramatic ways articles like this claim.
Ah... I still think there's a special circle of hell (right between the telemarketers and the lawyers) reserved for people who manipulate animals the way that rat has been treated.
@Anekanta: Yea its pretty distrubing learning about the things psychologist do in the name of research. Lets take away an animals mother and put it in stressful situations....hmm yes, I can't believe this, the animal has some serious issues when compared to its brethren! Thanks for the helpful information, keep up the good work. On the other hand, there are studies done on animals that save human lives, its a tricky situation.
@Anekanta: At least this one has been tortured so that somebody without an arm can drive a car someday (*for example*), not so that that pink shampoo doesn't itch so much when it gets in your eyes.
09/07/09
"Kids...someday there will be fewer and fewer American workers and you will be paid tons of money for your work skills. And if you think this Skylab stuff is cool, heck...you'll probably be living on the moon by the year 2000." -
Mrs. Downey's 3rd Grade class, Edison Elementary School, Alameda CA.
Yeah...thanks for the tip lady. And you'll be sitting in the Caycos making 12% returns with the Madoff fund. Bon appetit!
09/06/09
The theory I made up is that the marketplace always gets excited by higher tech ways of building things, particularly because the price of common goods tends to come down. (Machines producing more stuff for less money, etc) But there is a return swing on that line, where the market also starts to see the value of older techniques. Think of clothing: for millenia hand made clothes were the only choice, and most people had a very limited number of clothing articles. As mills and sewing machines came into ready availability, more people were able to afford multiple sets of clothes. Now you can go into the darkest jungles of the world, and find locals wearing T-shirts with Michael Jordan on them. But if you want to impress the people around you with the quality of your clothes, you get something hand made, like a Bond-street suit. How something was created becomes part of its value.
Having said all of that, I can't wait until I can my hands on a 3D printer! Those things are going to shake the world of manufacturing right down to its roots, just you wait and see...
09/07/09
09/08/09
09/06/09
Multi-touching one's eyes? Heh... the Three Stooges would be happy to see their eye-poking routine becoming commonplace. :)
09/06/09
Louis Wu in Ringworld
09/06/09
Thats the real "progress" its not less jobs.
Its the switch from uncreative to creative work.
09/06/09
But why wait for a contact lens? Whats so bad about a sleak pair of glass's, or side-based retina projection.
Both infinitely easier to make with current technology, and probably a darn site cheaper.
09/06/09
09/06/09
09/06/09
The world was utterly revolutionized in the 20th century, and I for one hope and aim to contribute it to do the same in the 21st.
09/06/09
Even a hundred years ago the mere idea of that ratio would be insane.
09/06/09
09/06/09
Its proponents are presenting it with this argument: There are lots of people who already work those hours: doctors, firemen, etc. This is a way to regularize it so that something you do a couple times every week is not presented as "exceptional" (extra hours).
Of course, everybody I know who works those hours is opposed to it, because, well, what the hell, If I have to work 8 hours more after working my regular 8 hours, that is NOT normal and those second 8 hours have to be paid more than the first 8 hours, and this is going to be a covered way to pay them less.
At least in Spain, where unpaid extra hours are more the rule than the exception, most people who work in the private sector, and many that work for the State, gets the feeling that working 10 hours a day and being paid for eight is now a reality that we're taking little steps to change, and this regulation looks like a huge step in the opposite direction, because, with an unemployment rate that's expected to reach 20% in a few months, you can't exactly say "you're exploiting me, I'll go to work for another company" if they ask you to work 60 hours for the same pay than you worked more than 40 before.
09/06/09
09/06/09
"possible response: fuck you, asshole".
then again, I can do that now. :D
#@!
09/06/09
09/06/09
As the cost and speed of 3-D printing decreases and increases respectively, manufacturing will be hit pretty badly, especially in the little things. I refer of course to miniatures for use in tabletop games, collectible or otherwise.
09/05/09
09/05/09
09/06/09
09/05/09
I think if there's anything that's going to provoke massive economic changes, it's going to be that one.
09/05/09
09/05/09
09/05/09
09/07/09
09/05/09
(Please god let me be right, I'd like to be able to continue to have a line of work...)
09/06/09
Though considering our search engine that they've spent tons of man hours programming can barely handle the article in the title being off I think we're cool for now.
09/06/09
Theres distributed-human power to do it too.
Just about any vague "what was that book..." or "what was that film.." question I normaly have answered on vark.com within a few minutes.
AI is a sidestory, the real story is the hivemind human inteligent is becomeing.
09/05/09
09/05/09
There are many people who believe that human beings have some kind of magical human-sensing power, but this seems like a fairly implausible position. Human beings are already shit at figuring out what's going on.
And, in fact, the reason that New United Motors has to lay people off in the weak economy is because the UAW managed to sustain high salaries for human workers, despite the fact that robot replacements should have been driving salaries down.
Also, you really do have as much paper as you had before the invention of the computer? Like, you've still got hard copies of all of your correspondence and things? Maybe all those letters that you write, for example?
It's one thing to complain that changes aren't happening fast enough--but suggesting that technology hasn't effected change at all seems a little absurd.
09/05/09
09/05/09
09/06/09
09/06/09