<![CDATA[io9: mad economics]]> http://tags.lifehacker.com/assets/base/img/thumbs140x140/io9.com.png <![CDATA[io9: mad economics]]> http://io9.com/tag/madeconomics http://io9.com/tag/madeconomics <![CDATA[Japan Could Avoid Deflation By Resorting To "Economic Science Fiction"]]> U.S. economists may dabble in science fiction, but only the Japanese are considering resorting to science-fictional ideas to rescue their economy. To avoid the spectre of deflation, the Japanese are considering abolishing cash altogether.

Writes the London Times:

Unorthodox, untried and, said one Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi strategist, "in the realms of economic science fiction", the recommendation has nevertheless begun floating around Tokyo's corridors of power and economists have described Japan as particularly suitable as a testing ground...

Other crazy futuristic ideas include putting a tax on hard currency, and introducing a separate currency alongside the Yen. The Times explains:

All three ideas are based on a theory concerning interest rates and the concept that a nominal rate of zero - as Japan has now lived with for much of the past decade - may be too high. In Japan's case, the theory would suggest that nominal rates of -4 per cent might be closer to what is required to rescue the economy from another deflationary spiral. Having agreed that this might be necessary, the next question is how it could be imposed.

Without physical cash, a central bank can set rates exactly where it likes, runs the argument. Mr Jerram said: "At the heart of the problem of achieving negative nominal interest rates is the idea that physical currency is an anonymous bearer bond with a nominal interest rate of zero." While a central bank can impose positive or negative rates on non-physical assets, transmitting those rates to physical currency is a huge challenge. By permanently removing cash from a system, he added, policymakers are robbed of the excuse that zero is the lowest that nominal rates can go as a deflation-fighting tool.

I'm wondering if we could see a new kind of caste system emerging in the future, where only the lowest caste and underclass people carry actual hard cash instead of various monetary instruments.

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<![CDATA[Employment Maps from the Economic Apocalypse]]> A series of maps showing job gains and losses in the United States over the past five years makes a fascinating study of how joblessness spread across a country heading for massive economic recession.

Using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, researchers from Austin-based economic development consulting firm TIP Strategies created a map that uses simple but effective visualizations to help people understand the way economic disaster spreads geographically. If you visit their site, you can watch the map slowly slide through each quarter since 2004, with job gains and losses ballooning outward when various sectors grow or shrink.

It's worth quoting at length from their analysis:

The timeline begins in 2004 as the country starts its recovery from the 2001 recession, following the bursting of the dot-com bubble. At first, broad economic growth was apparent across most of the country. Two notable exceptions are the Bay Area - the hub of the tech boom that drove job growth during the prior decade - and several metropolitan areas within the Midwest. The map reveals that much of the industrial Midwest never fully recovered from the previous recession, as manufacturers continue to shed jobs while other parts of the country were adding them in large number.

Equally telling is the short-lived expansion of construction- and real estate-related job growth in Sun Belt states, such as California, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona, during the middle of the decade as the nation's appetite for new homes increases. During this period, the map also captures the dramatic job losses in New Orleans in 2005 as a result of Hurricane Katrina, as well as the city's slow recovery driven largely by construction-related employment.

By 2007, regional evidence of the coming economic downturn starts to appear. Employment growth in California and Florida starts to wane, with the first signs of actual losses beginning in the middle of the year in Los Angeles and Tampa. At the same time, layoffs accelerate in the nation's manufacturing heartland. By the first quarter of 2008, job losses in the Southeast and Midwest begin to spread, setting off a chain of losses in neighboring areas until the two regions unite in recession. The same pattern appears on the West Coast, with the epicenter in Los Angeles marching eastward to the Front Range of the Rockies.

Check out all the maps, and the full study, on the TIP website.

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<![CDATA[Worried About Interplanetary Trade Agreements?]]> We may not have interplanetary travel for humans yet, but it's never too early to start dealing with problems related to interstellar trade and solar system stock market crashes. That's why textbook publisher Routledge has a journal called Astropolitics, whose latest issue features an in-depth scholarly article on "problems of interplanetary and interstellar trade." And no, the problems aren't "we don't have warp drive yet."

International Studies professor John Hickman sums up his article thusly:

If and when interplanetary and interstellar trade develops, it will be novel in two respects. First, the distances and time spans involved will reduce all or nearly all trade to the exchange of intangible goods. That threatens the possibility of conducting business in a genuinely common currency and of enforcing debt agreements incurred by governments. Second, interstellar trade suggests trade between humans and aliens. Cultural distance is a probable obstacle to initiating and sustaining such trade. Such exchange also threatens the release of new and dangerous memes.
I am seriously excited about those "new and dangerous memes." Please let one of them be related to having sex with an alien in a transparent ship hurtling through the center of the sun. Oops, did I write that in public?

Problems of Interplanetary and Interstellar Trade [Astro Politics] (Thanks, Chris!)

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