Here's a list of all the movies with production budgets of $170 million and over, for the past ten years. (We chose the threshold of $170 million because there were a ton of movies clustered around the $150 million-$160 million mark.) Movies that failed to make back their budget at the U.S. box office are underlined.

2009:

Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince: $250 million

Avatar: $237 million (according to AP)

Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen: $225 million (according to NY Post)

Terminator Salvation: $200 million

G.I. Joe: The Rise Of COBRA: $175 million

Up: $175 million

2008:

Quantum Of Solace: $230.6 million

Prince Caspian: $225.6 million

Iron Man: 186.5 million

Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull: $185.5 million

The Dark Knight: $185.5 million

Wall-E: $180.5 million

2007:

Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End: $317.4 million

Spider-Man 3: $272.9 million

The Golden Compass: His Dark Materials: $213.4 million

Rush Hour 3: $187.4 million

2006:

Superman Returns: $295.3 million

Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: $223.1 million

X-Men: The Last Stand: $209.3 million

Poseidon: $171.3 million

2005:

King Kong: $232.5 million

Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion The Witch & The Wardrobe: $197.6 million

Sahara: $176.8 million

Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire: $150 million (2005 dollars)

2004:

Spider-Man 2: $232.2 million

Troy: $199.9 million

Van Helsing: $182.8 million

The Polar Express: $186.6 million

Alexander: $175.4 million

2003:

Terminator 3: $238.4 million

The Matrix: Reloaded: $176.7 million

Master And Commander: $175.6 million

The Matrix: Revolutions: $175.6 million

2000:

The Perfect Storm: $175.6 million

1999:

Wild Wild West: $221 million

The World Is Not Enough: $173.3 million

The 13th Warrior: $206.8 million

Notes: All figures are in 2009 dollars, adjusted for inflation. These figures are just production budgets, and are based on the most accurate figures we could find. They don't include marketing budgets. And of course, many of the films which failed to break even at the U.S. box office did make a profit when you factor in international box office.

Conclusions:

There hasn't been a movie as expensive as Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End since 2007, so you could argue that, over all, movies are not getting more expensive. However, after a few years where there were four mega-budgeted movies per year, the last two years have each seen six movies with budgets over $170 million (in inflation-adjusted dollars.) And as we mentioned above, this year had the most movies costing $200 million or more of any year, with next year likely to see even more films over $200 million.

And the listing above doesn't reflect this fact, but we also found a steep rise in the number of movies costing around $150 million every year — this seems to be the safe point for a film that is expected to do well, but may not be a blockbuster. Films like X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Batman Begins, Star Trek and many others all have production budgets in the magic $150 million zone.

At the same time, Hollywood seems slightly better at picking winners lately. We haven't had a year where most of the hugely expensive movies failed to make back their budget at the U.S. box office since 2004, when two historical epics, The Polar Expressand Van Helsing all bombed. Or 2003, when one of two Matrix sequels underperformed, along with Terminator 3 and Master And Commander.

One thing jumps out at me: There were apparently no budget busting movies in 2000, 2001 or 2002. Apparently the first X-Men movie, which came out in 2000, had a budget of only about $75 million. And the Star Wars prequels, hideous though they were, were apparently on the cheap side, costing around $120 million each (in non-adjusted dollars.)

Why would this be? Well, look at the three big-budget movies from 1999. Notice anything the three of them have in common? Hmmm... Other mega-expensive bombs in the late 1990s include Speed 2: Cruise Control, Lethal Weapon 4 and, of course, Waterworld. The only mega-budget movies to make money in the latter half of the 1990s were Armageddon and Titanic.

Sources: Know Your Money, Forbes.com, Listphobia, The Numbers, IMDB, Box Office Mojo, Wikipedia, and other sources as cited.

The biggest difference in Chabon's draft is the character of Doctor Octopus, who's much more complex and rich, with moments of great urbanity.

Otto doesn't have a wife who dies as a result of his octopus-arms experiment going awry. Instead, he's single and actually courts Peter's would-be girlfriend Mary-Jane, with a great deal of success. There's a great scene where they go to dinner at an Ethiopian restaurant. Says Octopus, "I like to eat with my hands." He also tells her,"I'm a little freaky."

There's also a running subplot where Harry Osborn, Peter's roommate and the son of the Green Goblin, has put extreme security measures in place in their apartment, including steel bars and retinal scanners, among other things. Harry is having weird nightmares about his dead father, and he takes out a $10 million bounty on Spider-man's head, with the help of the Daily Bugle. Spider-Man keeps almost getting killed by ordinary people whom he's trying to help, because they want a chance at that money.

Remember that whole sequence in the movie where Peter decides he's sick of being Spider-Man, and then loses his powers for no particular reason? And he suddenly needs glasses again? And it's never explained, but then he randomly gets his powers back when he needs them most? In Chabon's draft, it actually makes sense. He talks to Otto Octavius, who gives him a special "pacer chip" that will reverse his spider-encoding DNA. Because Otto worked on the super-spider project that led to Peter getting his powers, he has the ability to reverse them.

So Peter injects himself with the chip, and slowly loses his powers. By the end of the film, he's totally powerless and having to improvise using a truck and some "webbing" made out of orange fencing when he fights Dr. Octopus.

Instead of Dr. Octopus going berserk and robbing a bank, he finally loses it when he's on a date with Mary Jane. He decides to wear his cybernetic arms on the date, because of the "endorphin push" he gets from them. (The script talks a lot about the "endorphin push" and how it counteracts Otto's pain, to the point where it becomes super-creepy.) And while on the date, Otto uses his cyber-arms to beat up a couple of guys who hassle him and Mary Jane, to her horror.

Dr. Octopus doesn't become permanently fused to his exo-arms until a bit after that, when he and Spider-Man have their subway-train fight and Spider-Man is trying to disable the arms.

And the reason why Dr. Octopus wants to capture Spider-Man is not just to please Harry Osborn, but also because that "pacer chip" that took away Spider-Man's powers will also help stabilize his fusion with the bionic limbs, which is killing him. The sequence where he makes an alliance with Harry over Spider-Man's prospective dead body makes a lot more sense in Chabon's draft.

The business with Aunt May finding out that Peter could have stopped the thief that killed Uncle Ben and becoming angry is much more intense and moving in Chabon's draft. And then later in the movie, she and Peter have an incredibly poignant scene together where she tells him that feeling crushed by your responsibilities is just normal life, for everybody. It's not something you can escape, and it's not a special destiny. It's just life.

And instead of Spider-Man getting his powers back as mysteriously as he loses them, he gets them back by using a knife and some pliers to dig the "pacer chip" out of his arm. It's a gross but extremely effective scene.

And in the end, Dr. Octopus manages to capture Spider-Man and straps him to his nasty spine-extracting machine. And that's when Harry and Mary Jane both learn Spider-Man's true identity. And it's Mary Jane who gets through to Dr. Octopus, thanks to the connection that the two of them forged earlier in the movie, and convinces him to abandon his experiment. Then Spider-Man breaks free and saves her from Otto's collapsing laboratory building.

All in all, it's much more coherent and effective than the somewhat jumbled version we saw on screen, not surprisingly. Get it while you can!

Update: McSweeney's has already taken the PDF down, after just a couple of days of being online. But I would be shocked if you had any trouble tracking down a copy.

[Jeff Vandermeer]