Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit - io9 Comments

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

CmdrHunt — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 14:22:45 PST

@Jonn: ... and melee weapons. Nothing says "lobotomy" like a mace to the cranium.

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Klebert L. Hall — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 08:00:25 PST

Yeah, I know Lyme disease isn't exactly fun (I live withing 50 miles of Lyme, and know several people who've had it), but precautions are easy, and when caught early (also relatively easy) there are effective treatments. You can eventually die of bad dental hygiene, too, and it's effects can be much more excruciating than those of Lyme disease.

I guess what I'm saying is, I wish people weren't such scaredy-cats these days.
-Kle.

Klebert L. Hall

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Jonn — Fri, 22 Feb 2008 07:28:12 PST

@Garrison Dean: Actually, World War Z says that China is precisely where the plague starts.

Remember to stock up on Phalanx. And shotguns.

Jonn

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

P3X-19 — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 12:32:32 PST

@pkrieger:

I believe developement does cause disease, because developement creates cities, and dense population is apparent in cities, and dense population increases the chance of poor sewage handeling (among other things), which cause disease.

But I'm not saying that inventing the lightbulb, or putting up an electric grid, will always bring some 'Plauge of God' down upon you.

P3X-19

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

pkrieger — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 11:34:57 PST

Speaking as someone with knowledge of bio-terrorism risk-management and bio-preparedness, these kinds of studies are integral to planning for outbreaks, and not a waste of resources. Preventing a disease may be more important that curing a disease.
However, if the same people who conducted the study also wrote the press release, I am concerned. Why is it that the entirety Central Europe being bright red considered a "small spot" while only a few tiny spots in Africa are considered a "hot spot"? They seem to have two contradictory explanations for their results: "Development causes disease" and "under-development causes disease" (by calling underdeveloped areas like Africa, China, and India "hotspots")

pkrieger

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

bryantpaul — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:53:04 PST

Urban centers might be hot-spots for infectious disease, but they're also the places where one would be most likely to find quick and effective medical intervention. It's sort of a catch-22.

Personally, I'm going to spend more time in my Purel bathysphere.

bryantpaul

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

str88f — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:49:06 PST

Oh great... A Holland-shaped red blot. Flood the place already!

str88f

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

braak — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:47:40 PST

@ideaman2020: No, that's true. Left untreated it can, eventually, result in death.

braak

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

ideaman2020 — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:41:18 PST

@braak: Actually, in rare cases, Lyme Disease can be fatal.

I would guess that's usually only if left untreated, but I could be wrong.

Definitely not something you'd want, either way, though.

ideaman2020

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

mgcramps — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:19:53 PST

It sucks being color blind and living in Ohio.

mgcramps

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

braak — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:14:17 PST

@Klebert: Wellll...Lyme Disease, while not generally fatal is actually a pretty horrible thing to have.

braak

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Klebert L. Hall — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:02:44 PST

@ManchuCandidate:

On the bright side, SARS, bird flu, west nile, and Lyme disease all showed that most of these new diseases are insanely feeble, and only a threat to the occasional child / elderly person, or other person at unusual risk.

People always paint these things as the 1918 influenza pandemic, but they're usually more of an inconvenience.
-Kle.

Klebert L. Hall

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

superbryant — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 10:00:32 PST

That property I own on the moon is looking pretty sweet now.....everyone said that acre of lunar soil was a waste of money....we'll see about that......haha....just gotta figure out how to get there....

superbryant

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Gomi — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:58:34 PST

@shan6: God hate New England?! We built that City on the Hill, thank ye very much. So what if it turned into genocide, religious intolerance and racism.

(Spoken by a proud Bostonian currently living in a more green area.)

Gomi

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

shan6 — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:56:13 PST

Hm, I thought God would hate New England quite a bit more...

shan6

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Garrison Dean, Mr. Privilege — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:50:11 PST

@Huxleyhobbes: Good point. This weekend I'll start staking out short term bunkers for the initial outbreak and isolated destinations for the long term.

Garrison Dean, Mr. Privilege

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Citizen Kang — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:47:09 PST

Whoo-hoo!!! No zombie infestation for me! I'll see the rest of my fellow Californians on the other side of the apocalypse. As for the rest of you...you might want to go out and buy "The Zombie Survival Guide" if you haven't already.

Citizen Kang

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Ourobolus — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:41:53 PST

@braak: Well yeah. I suppose what I meant to say was "I'm curious as to why 90% of the populated areas of Africa aren't red?"

Ourobolus

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Gomi — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:37:45 PST

It's not exactly a population density / hygiene map, though. Look at Europe and the northeastern US. I'd imagine that the population of northern Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and upstate New York is roughly comparable to the border areas of Germany and France (a few major cities, many smaller cities, expanses of rural farmland), with comparable medical care and public hygiene. Yet, the area in Europe is a hotspot, while the US area is largely light green.

India and China are definitely in the population/hygiene camp, but some other hotspots must be for other reasons.

Gomi

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Plague — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:37:44 PST

Hmm. Strange.
I don't have travel plans to ANY of these places...

Plague

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

braak — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:31:38 PST

@Ourobolus: Lower population densities make wide-spread epidemics less likely. You'll notice, of course, that the largest section of Africa with no likely epidemic risk is shared, geographically, by the Sahara Desert.

braak

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Mister Adequate — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:16:59 PST

@Garrison Dean: Why aren't you already prepared?

Mister Adequate

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Ourobolus — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:07:23 PST

I'm curious as to why 90% of Africa isn't red.

Ourobolus

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

NefariousNewt — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:07:04 PST

Seems like a large protion of Germany is a hot spot -- does somebody know something I don't or do I need to clean my glasses?

NefariousNewt

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Gann — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:06:30 PST

This is quite possibly the most depressing map I have ever seen.

Gann

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

tetracycloide — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:47:43 PST

@Annalee Newitz: not really. if there is one thing that gathering infant mortality rate data has taught us it is that if medical data is not being collected in an area the quality of medical care being provided there is more than likely lower than would be estimated.

tetracycloide

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Frozen-Tex — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:47:21 PST

@Annalee Newitz: You know Sasky? My fiance was born there, my Mom was born in Moosejaw, and my little sister was born in Nipiwan!

Frozen-Tex

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Annalee Newitz — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:42:46 PST

I will also note that Saskatchewan seems very safe. So if you're thinking of relocating, I recommend Saskatoon. Great co-ops, nice cafes, good university, friendly prairie culture.

Annalee Newitz

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Annalee Newitz — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:40:49 PST

If you read the study, the thing that's hilariously bizarre is the way they admit there isn't very good "surveillance" (by that I think they mean epidemiological data) in many regions across Africa. So they just make shit up to fill in the gaps (and by "make shit up" I mean run statistical simulations). Surprise -- the areas with less data are "hot spots." Red flag anyone?

Annalee Newitz

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Fagatron — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:32:49 PST

@tetracycloide: @braak: @Publican: LOL. Exhaustive research ehh? I wonder how much money they wasted on this uninformative "research" that could have actually been used to discover treatments or vaccines for emergent diseases.

Fagatron

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Frozen-Tex — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:32:44 PST

Nice to see myself safely in the green.

Frozen-Tex

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

braak — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:27:41 PST

@bryantpaul: Greenlanders need to fear what Greenlanders have always feared: being in Greenland.

braak

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Publican — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:14:43 PST

I get it, most likely where there are people.

Publican

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

ManchuCandidate — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:10:03 PST

Thanks to speedy travel, no one is really immune from it as SARS showed in 2003/4. Especially if your health care leaders are dipshits (see the gubbiment of Ontario's response to it.)

ManchuCandidate

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

bryantpaul — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:05:23 PST

Judging from that map, Greenlanders need to fear being swallowed by the sea.

bryantpaul

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

moncapitaine — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:04:34 PST

Fuck it, I'm moving to Alaska.

moncapitaine

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

braak — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:03:55 PST

@tetracycloide: Hahah. I was just going to say that. They did all this work, analyzing all these different factors, and ended up with a map of population density.

Scientists: "Whoops!"

braak

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

Garrison Dean, Mr. Privilege — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:01:18 PST

As I live in one of these areas, I would like to know if this includes predictions for an outbreak of Solanum. I would like to be appropirately prepared with supplies and weapons in case of "ghouls".

Garrison Dean, Mr. Privilege

Disease Prediction Map Shows Where the Next Plague Will Hit

tetracycloide — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 07:59:15 PST

reavealing, chances of major plague outbreaks are directly proportional to population density and inversly proportional to quality of hygiene. wait, not revealing, the other thing... obvious.

tetracycloide